As the air in Washington, D.C., cools down, winter weather predictions are once again a hot topic. Many locals feel that snow has become a rare sight in the city.
Recently, news reports joined in that sentiment, suggesting referring to a pattern of declining snowfall over the last few years. But is that truly the case? The answer is more nuanced than you might think.
Fewer Flurries, Stronger Storms
Professor Nikolay Shiklomonov, an expert in climate and environmental change at George Washington University, offers insights that challenge the notion of outright decline.
According to him, the numbers tell a more complex story. He emphasized a need for local news media to differentiate between how much snow a city will get in a year and how many days residents will see it.
He explained that winters are feeling less consistently snowy because we’re seeing "fewer but more intense storms,” he says. While annual snowfall totals haven’t changed significantly over the decades, the distribution of snow throughout the season has.
For D.C. residents, this means fewer opportunities to pull out their snow pants for casual flurries or light snowfalls. Instead, they’re dealing with occasional heavy snowstorms that leave a lasting impression. It’s not just the amount of snow that matters, but how it’s falling—and how often.
How We Experience Snow
Think back to winters past—what do you remember most? For many, it’s not the exact snowfall totals but the experiences: waking up to a snow-covered world knowing you get a day off of school or that you’ll be bundling up for a slushy commute. These memories are shaped not just by how much snow falls but by how long it sticks around and how often it disrupts daily routines.
This distinction is why the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tracks snow using two measures: snowfall (the amount of snow that falls) and snow depth (how much snow is present, regardless of whether or not it is actively snowing). Snowfall captures the drama of a snowstorm, while snow depth reflects the lasting impact in the days that come.
In Washington, D.C., the shift from regular light snowfalls to fewer but more intense storms means fewer days to shoveling driveways. Yet, when those rare storms do hit, they leave a bigger mark, shaping how locals experience and remember the season. Winters may feel less snowy overall, though the intensity of individual storms grows.
Student Perspective
Paulina Poels, a third-year student at George Washington University (GW), highlights how snowfall—or the lack thereof—has shaped her experience in D.C. “You would think D.C. would get more snow,” she said. “It seems like it only snowed while I was studying abroad!” she said referring to January. However, her perception isn’t unique.
GW’s winter break typically spans late December into early January, impacting most students who leave campus’ experience of DC winter during that the holidays. Still, GW issues alerts to notify students of inclement winter weather.
Last academic year, the university issued three winter weather advisories. These advisories often lead to delays, closures, or shifts to online classes.
The Numbers: Declining Snow Days
A look at historical data reveals that the number of days with measurable snowfall in D.C. has declined over the past 50 years. Days with snow on the ground have become less frequent, supporting residents’ feelings of “less snow.”
NOAA Online Weather Data
In the 1960s and 1970s, snow cover was a more common sight. But over the last three decades, those numbers have dropped, leaving residents with fewer chances to wake up to a winter wonderland.
Still, the total amount of snow the city receives annually hasn’t changed drastically. NOAA data shows that while the number of snow days is down, the storms that do occur tend to bring more snow in a shorter time frame.
Lucia’s Snow Memories
Lucia Sanchez, D.C. resident and current GW graduate student, shares similar sentiments to her fellow GW classmate Poels
“I feel like I haven't experienced that much snow in D.C., especially recently,” she said.
Raised in Ann Arbor, Michigan, Lucia grew up with snow-covered winters. Despite the shift, she recalls enjoying a rare storm last year, when her professor moved class online. “I got to go out and play in the snow after!” she said.
Sanchez playing in the snow with a friend during a storm. (January 2024)
Lucia’s story underscores the shifting experience of snow in the capital, where major storms have become opportunities to pause and enjoy since they are no longer viewed as a routine disruption. Although she hopes for more days to play in the snow this year, not much is expected to change.
Why Snowfall Totals Haven’t Changed Much
While the number of snow days has decreased, D.C.’s total annual snowfall in inches has remained relatively stable over the decades. Data from NOAA indicates no drastic changes in average snowfall highs per decade.
NOAA Online Weather Data
This suggests that although winters feel different—less frequent snow days, shorter-lasting snow—overall precipitation remains comparable, echoing Shiklomonov’s observation that fewer storms are now packing a stronger punch.
A Shift in Perspective
According to Professor Shiklomonov, the city’s changing winters reflect a broader global trend. “Climate change is happening, I’m not denying that,” he emphasizes. But the decline in snow days doesn’t tell the full story. As winters become less consistently snowy, areas like D.C. are increasingly dominated by extreme events rather than regular flurries.
He warns that headlines focusing on declining snowfall are oversimplifying and miss this nuance. Instead of consistent flurries, today’s winters bring concentrated bursts of snow.
What to Expect This Winter
As D.C. braces for another winter, the trends of recent years are likely to continue. Residents can expect fewer snow days but should prepare for the possibility of a few storms.
Unlike decades past, when snowstorms could grind the city to a halt, today’s technology and flexible work policies have made it easier to weather the winter. Snow days are no longer a guarantee of missed school or work, thanks to the rise of online learning and telecommuting.
Still, the occasional heavy snowstorm is a reminder of how unpredictable winter weather can be. While D.C. winters may feel less snowy compared to childhood memories, the way snow impacts daily life continues to evolve. Residents might not need their snow pants every day, but they’d be wise to keep them handy—just in case.
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